Introduction and Background to the Assessment

Wales faces a number of challenges now and in the future, such as climate change, poverty, health inequalities and jobs and growth. To tackle these we need to work together. To give current and future generations a good quality of life we need to think about the long term impact of the decisions we make.

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 gives a legally-binding common purpose – the seven well-being goals – for national government, local government, local health boards and other specified public bodies. It details the ways in which specified public bodies must work, and work together to improve the well-being of Wales.

The Act states that an Assessment of Local Wellbeing must be produced to support these public bodies in the setting of wellbeing objectives and in the production of any plans set in motion to improve the wellbeing of the people who live in their area. This report is the first part in producing that Wellbeing Assessment.

How has this Assessment been produced

To describe all aspects of wellbeing would be an enormous task, so this Assessment aims to provide only an outline of the more strategic issues affecting the counties of Conwy and Denbighshire. In producing the Assessment we have taken an ‘engagement led’ approach. The journey has not started with pre-conceived ideas or abstract data analysis, but with extensive engagement both with local communities and the staff who work in the different public sector organisations. People were encouraged to talk about the strengths and weaknesses of living in the area or providing public services to the people.  This Assessment builds on the Assessment we undertook and published in 2017. We have in places, had to remove embedded graphics or charts to meet accessibility standards and we hope this makes the assessment easier to access and understand.

We have grouped what people were saying into strategic topics and looked into the data and available supporting research papers to see where there is sound evidence to support the perceptions and feelings. In particular we have tried to consider the implications of each topic on the wellbeing of the individual and how it contributes to the 7 wellbeing goals set out in the Ac.

We have around 60 strategic topics ranging from transport, obesity, key economic sectors, biodiversity, equality, Welsh language, domestic violence and so on. We also have locality profiles for smaller areas of both counties. Each topic provides analysis about: the situation now; how the current situation compares with the past; what the future looks like; what people have said about the topic, and key questions and areas needing further research. We have given equal weight to what people have told us, and have chosen to highlight this information throughout the assessment.

Our approach to engagement, data and future trends analysis was intended to be highly interlinked. Whereby we could explore what people were telling us in our research into trends and data, and test out findings from the trends in our conversations with people. The approach is sound but has proved challenging, mainly due to the challenges around engagement during the Covid-19 pandemic (see also below).

There is a huge amount of complexity and sometimes tension between topics or across goals, and for this reason we have provided seven well-being goal summaries. We hope these summaries will support partners and communities in moving from a space with a vast amount of knowledge to a place where partners and communities can see the connections, the tensions, and the opportunities. Each summary includes opportunities for targeted interventions to tackle root causes and the issues identified, and a list of key questions and areas for further research. Each strategic topic also includes a section that highlights weaknesses, limitations or opportunities to address our questions.

We have tried, as far as possible, to stay focussed on long term trend and identify root causes to some trends that are detrimental to well-being. During this Assessment, we have also begun to explore differences in personal well-being across areas and communities. More information about this is available on our seven well-being goal summary pages.

Examples of data sources used:

• Stats Wales
• Public Health Wales Observatory
• Future Trends Wales
• Future Trends 2020 Report
• Wales Centre for Public Policy research
• Local data sources

Some data, such as public health data, was analysed by experts and other data was analysed by a group or individuals concerned with topic in general (for example transport).

Our analyses are consistent with the four big drivers of change highlighted by the Welsh Government in its Future Trends report (People and Population; Inequalities; Planetary Health and Limits and Technology). Indeed, many of our topics include analyses across these four drivers of change.

Welsh Government, in recognising the context in which public bodies and Public Service Boards, and town and community councils work, identified two public service drivers (public finances and public sector demand and digital). The latter has been more commonly considered in our analyses, with some high level thinking around public services and finances in the future in relation to demographic projections.

Limitations of this Assessment and next stages

A note on Covid-19 and Brexit

At this point in time, the UK has not fully entered a Covid-19 recovery phase and the consequences of Brexit are being worked through. It is important to acknowledge that some indicators and research show disruptions, due to Covid-19 especially, which makes planning at a time of uncertainty particularly challenging.

This was partly because the Covid-19 pandemic changed the focus of our work and shifted staff resources. However, the main reason is because the Covid-19 pandemic has meant that some key data sources were not collected and/or reported on as they had been before March 2020. Other data sources have been temporarily impacted by changes in legislation or changes in behaviours. These disruptions have been considered when interpreting the evidence used in this well-being assessment.

As well as the changes in collection/reporting practices that were seen during 2020 to 2022, it is still too early to know how Covid-19 will influence things in the medium to long term, and the resultant impacts of this. In this same time period there have been shocks and discontinuities in economic indicators caused by Brexit, and it is not always possible to separate these two big drivers of change.

Therefore, we cannot rely on data from 2020 to 2021 to help us model the future, as we will not know what behavioural changes are likely to be long term, and which are just blips in the trajectory before returning to pre-pandemic patterns. It is best to remain mindful yet cautious when trying to plan for the post-Covid/post-Brexit future.

Bearing this in mind, where possible and where appropriate a commentary on the perceived impacts of Covid-19 and Brexit is provided alongside analysis of other evidence.

Other limitations

Our previous assessment of well-being highlighted a range of qualitative and quantitative gaps at a local level, particularly gaps about people with protected characteristics. Those gaps are still present, however, this well-being assessment uses national data and research to draw together some conclusions about how inequality manifests itself in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire, and specifically how inequality of well-being is likely to persist^[1]. Marginalised groups and their well-being and resilience is an area of weakness, particularly their resilience to long term trends, such as climate change. We will review our analyses to ensure they reflect current and future trends as and when new or more reliable information becomes available (including linking to the regional Population Needs Assessment).

Each strategic topic includes a summary of limitations in our evidence or analysis. We will work collaboratively, with partners and communities across North Wales in particular, to address these.

We know that this Assessment will only provide a strategic outline or framework for public sector bodies to produce their wellbeing objectives. It gives a broad but quite shallow analysis of each of the topic areas it covers. It is intended only as the first step in the process and will evolve as an assessment over time, particularly as regional research and engagement (including co-production) relationships and partnerships develop.

Our refreshed well-being assessment has improved analyses on the well-being gap of people with protected characteristics or people in poverty. We have bene unable to improve our analyses on marginalised groups and their well-being and resilience (for example, offenders), particularly their resilience to challenging long term trends. However, we will explore these gaps further with partners.

An area of weakness last time – the social and cultural fabric of social networks – continues to be an area for development. It has not been possible to fully analyse the future trajectory of social and cultural networks, the community sector, and the role of the non-monetary economy (eg unpaid care, food banks, community asset transfer), and reflects partly, the challenges of planning during a pandemic.

We have updated our locality profiles. These provide a greater understanding of how challenges manifest themselves in different areas of Conwy and Denbighshire, and which particular communities have resilience or are vulnerable to current and future trends. We feel we have begun to provide insights into these trends by highlighting areas of difference or where there is less resilience to long term trends. There is more work we could do though on spatial differences in respect of particular topics, for example low birth weight, and in terms of making comparisons between areas. So too in analysing the implications of broad drivers of change and projected trends in relation to our county and locality analyses. Some localities have more detailed analyses than others. This in part reflects our current capacity to provide these analyses and also the fact that some locality areas are less embedded, with a clear spatial identity, than others.

Further consideration of how the natural assets of localities may be used to help address some of the well-being needs identified within the wider assessment is an area for development. We also need to ensure that we consider what is special or significant about place within the identified communities, particularly around natural assets. A practical community level analysis of local green and blue spaces could include public rights of way and active travel routes as well as how these sites are currently used and how they could be managed in the future. One respondent to our consultation on the draft well-being assessment said it would be beneficial to explore how people currently engage with natural assets within the community and the role they could play in the future, for example in assisting with flooding, air quality and so on.

We had hoped to work with our regional partners to explore trends and opportunities on a regional footprint, particularly where there are possible tensions (for example, tourism vs over tourism). We hope this will be the focus of regional research support facilitated by Wrexham Glyndwr University going forward.  Co-Production Network for Wales is supporting these developments.

Next Stages

To move on from this Assessment, we recommend that the public services consider prioritising a number of the topic areas, and then commission more in depth analysis on areas needing further research or analsysis. This will keep the Assessment manageable and impactive. This next stage of the Assessment process should look to provide a clear bridge between the strategic topics discussed and the response that is needed by public services working in partnership with the communities.

Respondents to the consultation on our draft well-being assessment fed back on the depth and breadth of information and evidence included in our well-being assessment. Many though felt that the website could be more user friendly, in plainer English or Welsh, with more infographics, charts, images, direct quotes from our engagement and better functionality (for example, a search bar). These are web enhancements we will look into in the future. In the meantime, we are producing an infographic which summarises our executive summary (this will be available in summer 2022).

How this Assessment will be used

The purpose of this Assessment is to support the Public Services Board and individual partners to set their well-being objectives for the coming years.

As already mentioned, there is a huge amount of complexity and sometimes tension between topics or across goals. In addition to the seven well-being goal summaries, we have also developed a summary of the key issues and opportunities, based on the knowledge we have about future trends. These key issues and opportunities relate to many goals, and play out differently in different areas of both counties. Our local area profiles are intended to provide an insight into the strengths and challenges in these areas, and critically include people’s own voices.

Now this well-being assessment has been approved and published, we have started working on developing a new PSB Well-being Plan for the region.  We will also engage and consult with people on this plan before publishing in 2023.

Conversations about this Assessment will focus on the following key questions:

• What does this Assessment tell us about well-being?
• How significant is this problem? On its own and in relation to everything else?
• Are current approaches adequate?
• What further activity is needed and what collective action can address the issues?

We are proposing to have engagement as part of the plan which will address and support futures thinking.

Lessons learned

We worked well as a multi-agency, cross county group that steered editors to revisit existing topics and improve our evidence base and analyses. We have worked well to coordinate analyses between this assessment and the population needs assessment produced by the North Wales Social Care and Well-being Services Improvement Collaborative. We have produced a comprehensive and wide ranging assessment of well-being and we have summarised our findings into a more easily digestible executive summary.

We could work more closely with our Community Safety Partnership.

We had hoped to work with our regional partners to explore trends and opportunities on a regional footprint, particularly where there are possible tensions (for example, tourism vs over tourism), but this has not yet been possible. We hope this will be the focus of regional research support facilitated by Wrexham Glyndwr University going forward.

There are a number of evidence gaps or analyses gaps highlighted throughout the assessment, not least publication of the 2021 Census results. The knowledge gaps we have identified should help focus capacity around addressing deficiencies in the well-being assessment over the next five years. We need to do more to incorporate engagement from a range of existing or planned engagements, from within our own counties to across the region. Again, we are working to make this possible with our regional partners – particularly in relation to seldom heard groups.

There is though a serious deficit in research capacity in both areas and across the region, and this is unlikely to be addressed through our regional collaboration. We have a gap in being able to monitor and manage the evidence. There is a risk that we will not update this well-being assessment regularly.

As mentioned above, each strategic topic includes a summary of limitations in our evidence or analysis. We will work collaboratively to address these, although a plan has not yet been agreed for how this will happen in practice.

[1] Publication of Census 2021 data, when it is available, will to some extent address some of our data gaps.