The climate and nature emergencies are the two biggest challenges facing our future generations.  The level of global warming depends on a number of factors. The most important is the amount of emissions produced in the coming years.  Emissions are greenhouse gases released into our atmosphere. The accumulation of these gases has a warming effect on the globe, which in turn leads to changes in climatic conditions.

The crises of climate change and biodiversity loss are inextricably linked. Biodiversity loss is made worse by climate change, and vice versa. However, creating and restoring biodiverse habitats on land and in our seas lock up carbon, and nature can also provide solutions for helping us to adapt to climate change, such as by reducing flood risk. This inextricable link between the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change is why we need to tackle them together.

Everything that we do, from the water we drink, air we breathe and food we eat is all dependent on the natural world. The processes that keep our reservoirs clean and the food in the fields growing are all underpinned by the wildlife – or biodiversity – that surrounds it, and without any of these, other species simply would not be able to survive.

In 2021, the UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) released the third independent assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3). Key findings from the report show that adaptation has not kept pace with evidence that the climate risk is likely to be more severe than previously thought. The CCC have also produced a Summary for Wales (CCC 2021, Evidence for the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment: Summary for Wales) which shows that 26 risks from climate change have increased since the second risk assessment carried out 5 years ago.

CCRA 3 also lists new risks that did not appear in CCRA 2. The Summary for Wales identifies the following risks as high magnitude, requiring action now:

1. The impact of climate change on the natural environment (terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine, forests and agriculture)
2. Increases in the range, quantities and negative consequences of pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species
3. More frequent flooding and coastal erosion, leading to: (a) damage to coastal businesses; (b) increased severity and frequency of flooding to homes and communities; and (c) damage to infrastructure services (energy, transport, water supplies and ICT)
4. The impact of high temperatures, high winds and lightning on the transport network
5. The impact of high temperatures on people’s health and wellbeing
6. Extreme weather events causing disruption of health and social care services
7. Changes in temperature, precipitation, groundwater and other landscape changes causing damage to cultural heritage assets
8. International impacts of climate change (e.g., food availability, safety and security, risks to international law/governance) that could affect the UK through disruption of trade routes, supply chains and public health)

NRW’s State of Natural Resources Report 2020 draws on the Welsh Doughnut Report 2020 published by Oxfam, which evaluates how well we are living within sustainable levels in respect of a suite of both environmental and societal parameters. Currently, Wales is not meeting goals related to society and well-being, nor are we within sustainable limits for our use of environmental resources.^[1] In order to address the challenges faced by climate change, a transformative approach is needed, ideas that need exploring in the future Wellbeing plan for Conwy and Denbighshire are outlined below.

Recognising that our food system is at risk from a changing climate. It also directly contributes towards climate change, with agriculture contributing around 16% of Wales’ total greenhouse gas emissions.  For instance, reduced meat and dairy consumption is an efficient way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions but implementing this could be a significant challenge as it requires lifestyle changes and can impact on the economies of rural communities.

Support adoption of low carbon agricultural practices and re-thinking land-use practice.  The new Agriculture Act for Wales provides a unique opportunity to transition to and reward sustainable farming and land management that restores nature, tackles climate change and provides society with a wide range of essential public goods. This piece of legislation will play a critical role in determining the state of Welsh ecosystems on which we and future generations depend.

The most effective and most sustainable carbon storage solutions on the planet include restoration of damaged peatlands and maintenance of condition of healthy peatlands.

Trees and woodlands have a vital role to play in helping to tackle both the climate and nature emergencies, for example by sequestering carbon and helping to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change. This applies not only to rural woodlands, but also to the urban environment, such as street trees and trees in parks and gardens.

Converting lawns around public buildings to biodiverse meadows makes environmental and financial sense. Supporting the identification, with the Conwy and Denbighshire PSB, local communities and landowners, of place-based opportunity spaces for woodland creation and tree planting will enhance people’s connection to nature and deliver the multiple environmental and human health benefits provided by trees and woodlands.

Housing conditions affect people’s health and energy use. Eighteen percent of homes in Wales pose an unacceptable risk to health, and 12% of households are in fuel poverty. Damp and mouldy homes increase respiratory problems by between 30% and 50%, especially in children.^[2]   Investing in energy efficient homes lowers energy use, reduces overall energy demand in the economy and makes individual households, and Wales, more resilient to fuel price fluctuations.

Energy and decarbonisation is a fast-moving field with discussions happening around the role of many different technologies, including hydrogen, electrification and carbon capture and storage. The role of consumers is a key part of the energy system, in terms of reducing demand via energy efficiency and of changes in supply via local generation.  Wales has recently committed to net-zero by 2050, and this is set in legislation alongside a series of carbon budgets every five years and decadal targets.  The Welsh Government’s ambition is a net-zero public sector by 2030. The Committee on Climate Change projects a likely doubling of electricity demand in Wales by 2050 due to new demands from the societal transition to renewable electricity sources.^[3]

The marine energy programme has the potential to be an important driver of investment and jobs. Given Wales’ extensive wind, wave and tidal energy resource, marine renewable energy development has the potential to deliver low carbon energy at considerable scale, beyond that already achieved in Welsh waters.

Enabling the movement towards a circular economy is an important factor in decarbonising Wales, further reducing the amount of waste generated and ensuring that produced waste can be truly reused or recycled is key. Where neither is possible, the waste is disposed of appropriately.

Green infrastructure has an important contribution to ensure the long-term sustainability of towns and city centres and the wider benefits to people and the benefits from their natural resources. It can help to create an environment that is more attractive to both people and wildlife, deal with problems like surface water flooding as well as encourage active travel and investment into town and city centres.

Integrated and sustainable transport options prevent the negative effects of current transport patterns on human health and improve ecosystem resilience. Thirty percent of car journeys in Europe cover distances of less than 3 km; 50% cover less than 5 km. These distances can be covered within 15–20 minutes by bicycle or 30– 50 minutes by brisk walking.^[4]

The use of public transport in the UK is around 95% less than the same period last year (2019), with reductions in visits and length of stay at UK transit stations of up to 75% in March.^[5] These have rebounded since, but the reductions remain significant. These reductions are of course in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but significant behaviour change is required to increase public transport use.

Sustainable transport policies promote active mobility and public transport use. Such policies help reduce air pollution, noise and greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and congestion, as well as improving road safety and offering better protection of landscapes, and urban cohesion.

The use of digital technology has accelerated new ways of working and connecting with each other, from reducing time spent commuting, to more flexible ways of studying and spending more time with family.  Opinion polls from around the world show that people want to protect the environment and preserve the positives that have emerged from the crisis as society recovers.

The overarching risks of climate change and biodiversity loss increasingly effects people’s health and well-being. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including heatwaves, drought and severe storms, and is modifying the transmission of infectious diseases.

Those most vulnerable in society, or in vulnerable situations, such as the older people, those living in relative poverty, the inactive, the unemployed, those at risk of flood or of poor air quality or high levels of environmental noise, are at a higher risk of increasing health burdens and lower levels of healthy life expectancy because of known and avoidable environmental risk.

There is still a need to build and maintain sustainable flood defences, but also to recognise the importance of improving awareness and understanding of risk, encouraging people to act to improve their own resilience. A shift in behaviours can take time but this can be accelerated with incentives and social approaches to improving community flood responses.

If everyone on Earth used natural resources at the same rate as Wales, 2.5 planets would be needed. This over-consumption of natural resources is putting a strain on ecosystems in Wales and world-wide.^[6]

In Wales, the impacts of climate change will not be felt equally across the country – economically and socially disadvantaged people will be disproportionately impacted. Existing inequalities are likely to be compounded, with people living in lower-income areas and more exposed locations having fewer available resources to mitigate and adapt to changes in the climate.^[7]

Stark emissions inequalities exist between the wealthiest and poorest people. This trend looks set to continue at both the global and national level. The richest 10 per cent of the UK population are responsible for a quarter of UK total emissions, producing over four times more emissions than the poorest 50 per cent.^[8]

The “Inequality in a Future Wales” report states:^[9]

“The poorest and most marginalised populations are least responsible for climate change but are a) the most likely to be exposed to its negative effects b) more susceptible to damage and c) have the least resources to respond, cope and recover. Climate change mitigation could benefit marginalised communities if done well but could increase inequalities if the impacts on different groups in society are not factored in. It is important that climate change does not become separated from equalities thinking and understanding, or limited to decarbonisation when it is just one part of achieving sustainability and well-being for people and planet. The broad portfolio of the new Climate Change Ministry is therefore welcomed as an important opportunity for integration.”

[1] State of Natural Resources Report 2020, NRW

[2] Public Health Wales, 2019

[3] Welsh Government (2021). Future Trends Report Wales. https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-12/future-trends-report-wales-2021-narrative-summary.pdf

[4] World Health Organisation, 2020b

[5] NRW, 2020, Unpublished

[6] Welsh Government, 2015

[7] Welsh Government (2021). Future Trends Report Wales. https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-12/future-trends-report-wales-2021-narrative-summary.pdf

[8] Welsh Government (2021). Future Trends Report Wales. https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2021-12/future-trends-report-wales-2021-narrative-summary.pdf

[9] Dr Sara MacBride-Stewart & Dr Alison Parken (2021). Inequality in a Future Wales: Areas for action in work, climate and demographic change. The findings are summarised within a Summary Report and ‘Bite-size’ version with Easy Read and BSL versions available also. For those who are interested in the more detailed analysis you can access the full technical report.