The impacts of climate change are growing, and are expected to worsen significantly, unless further action to tackle current and future risks are taken.

The Climate Change Risk Assessment 3 Summary for Wales identifies some of the high magnitude risks requiring action now.^[1]  These include:

• Impacts on the natural environment, more pests, pathogens and invasive non-native species, damage to cultural assets;
• more flooding, coastal erosions, damage to homes and business, as well as energy, transport, water supplies and information technology;
• other changing weather impacts from high temperatures, winds and lightning;
• direct impact of high temperatures on health and well-being, disruption to health and social care from extreme weather;
• impacts on food availability, safety and security from international impacts.

Nature recovery

Nature recovery is key to rebuilding ecological resilience and sustaining the benefits that it provides us. The rebuilding needs to be done at a faster pace and larger scale if we are to reduce the potential impacts of these two emergencies.

The rise in global temperatures is impacting on the world’s ecology. This is made worse by the loss of habitat quality and quantity through the use of unsustainable land management activities such as deforestation and the use of pesticides.

Climate risk resilience

The risks of climate change and biodiversity loss increasingly effect people’s health and well-being. Climate change mitigation could benefit marginalised communities if equalities is factored into the thinking.^[2]

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including heatwaves, drought and severe storms, and is modifying the transmission of infectious diseases.

Much of Wales is projected to be less impacted by drought and heatwaves compared to much of southern England, making Wales better placed to adapt to this change. However, the high rainfall and steep-sided valleys across much of Wales will exacerbate the risks associated with heavy rainfall events. Climate change is already having a substantial effect on Welsh biodiversity and ecosystems, such as loss of inter-tidal habitats due to sea-level rise.

We need a resilient environment that can respond to pressures by resisting, recovering or adapting to change; and is able to continue to provide natural resources and benefits to people. The well-being of humans (particularly those in the poorest parts of the world, see our summary on the ‘globally responsible’ well-being goal for more information) around the planet is threatened by an ecological and environmental breakdown. Time is running out to respond to this crisis and avoid a catastrophic situation for Wales and the world.

With rising temperatures, reducing rainfall forecast due to climate change and increase in population density in certain areas also puts challenges on the ready access of water. Consideration around sustainable use of water for domestic, agricultural and commercial/industrial sectors of the two areas will be a rising challenge.

Energy system

The global energy system is one of the main drivers of the climate emergency. Wales’s current energy production and consumption creates many pressures for ecosystems and public health here and across the planet. Wales needs to increase its use of renewable and sustainable energy sources, reducing the current dependence on harmful fossil fuels energy supply security. Resilient communities are those able to successfully adapt to change. The two areas have inescapable responsibilities for meeting carbon reduction and recycling targets for the protection of the local environment and the wider world.

In 2019 the UK Government amended the Climate Change Act (2008) to commit the UK to achieving net zero by 2050, compared to the previous target of an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050. The UK Government is required to set carbon budgets under the Climate Change Act 2008. They are legally binding and are intended to act as stepping stones towards the net zero target in 2050. The UK’s carbon budgets place a restriction on the total amount of greenhouse gases the UK can emit over a five-year period. In 2021, the UK Government put into law to reduce emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels as part of its sixth carbon budget.  In March 2021, Senedd Cymru approved a net zero target for 2050. Net zero means balancing the greenhouse gas emissions with the amount of gases we’re removing from the atmosphere. Wales also has interim targets for 2030 and 2040, and a series of 5-year carbon budgets. The target for 2030 is a 63% reduction in carbon emissions, increasing to 89% by 2040 and meeting at least 100% reduction by 2050.^[3] These are very challenging targets for reducing carbon emissions and apply to domestic, commercial and public sector bodies.

Wales needs to increase its use of renewable and sustainable energy sources, reducing the current dependence on harmful fossil fuels. Installed electrical capacity and installed heat capacity from renewable energy both increased by 5% respectively in Wales. The amount of renewable electricity generated is approximately half (51%) of electricity consumed in Wales.

Adaptation to climate change

The scale of the challenge for householders is great. Rising gas and electricity prices, inefficient housing stock, existing fuel poverty and particular challenges in rural areas which are not on gas network, leaves some doubt as to the resilience of householders – of all tenures – in the future.

As well as efforts to prevent and reduce environmental damage, adaptation to climate change is already a pressing issue. There is still more to do to make sure that there are healthy places for people, protected from environmental risk across the areas. Resilient communities are those able to successfully adapt to change, including the impact from changing climate that is already being felt in the two areas and will increasingly do so even with abated emissions.

Increasing the resilience of our ecosystems not only prevent and reduce environmental damage but can support the adaptation needed to reduce the impacts of climate change   Ensuring communities are resilient in the face of extreme weather events, notably flooding, is a major challenge. Sea level is expected to rise by 1.1 metre over the next century, and every year floods cost around £200 million to the Welsh economy.  Economic and insured losses resulting from extreme weather events present a major threat to global resilience.^[4]

General climate change projections show an increased likelihood of more frequent and intense rainfall. It is expected that severe events such as the 2020 storms will become more common with increased severity and frequency of flooding of homes, communities and businesses. At the same time, coastal flooding is a growing threat due to accelerating mean sea-level rise and increases in storminess and wave heights. This will exacerbate the exposure of the coast to flooding and coastal erosion; and will increase the risk to the coastal assets and the costs to maintain them to acceptable standards.

These climate change associated impacts will increase the number of properties, infrastructure and key services at risk of flooding from all sources. Places not previously at risk could become vulnerable and many currently at risk could be of greater risk. The population at risk of exposure to flooding is expected to increase as a result of changes in land-use, urbanisation and development in low-lying areas.

Some of the communities most at risk of being affected by flooding are also likely to experience other challenges to their well-being over the next decade or so (see our summary on the ‘More equal’ well-being goal for more information). This is particularly the case in more deprived communities where we can see stark differences in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy between communities (see our summary on the ‘healthier’ well-being goal for more information). Evidence shows that low-income areas suffer not only from issues associated with poor housing, lower educational attainment and poor diet, but also less access to good quality green and blue space, all of which contribute to poor health.

Food security and local agricultural and food sectors

According to WWF Cymru, Wales urgently needs to create an integrated, sustainable and just food system fit for future generations.^[5] How to deliver healthy, nutritious food for all in the face of shrinking resources and a growing population, while addressing climate change and nature loss, is a major challenge globally, including in Wales. A sustainable food system is crucial to our nation’s future. It’s central to our health and wellbeing, our culture, society and economy and an important part of addressing the climate and nature crises we now face.

There are, however, systemic problems within the food system in Wales that urgently need addressing. Many people in Wales cannot afford access to a healthy diet. The food system has negative impacts on the environment, public health and economic well-being. This hinders our ability to prosper as a nation both now and in the future. ^[6]

The global food system has a significant impact on the environment. Land use is identified by the UN IPBES report (2019) as one of the big drivers of the nature emergency. Emissions of pollutants, depletion of resources, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation are consequences of the current system in Wales and beyond. Climate change is expected to have impacts on all four pillars of food security – food availability, access to food, food utilisation and stability of the food supply.^[7] There are also likely to be food pricing fluctuations that will affect businesses and consumers.

The Wales Centre for Public Policy expects Brexit to have varying impacts on different aspects of the agricultural and food sector, which means its effects will be felt differently across different areas of Wales. For example, sheep production is likely to become less economically viable, due to changes in market access and public funding restrictions. Some researchers argue that land currently used for sheep farming in Wales will most likely be converted into forest.^[8] These changes will have consequences for our agriculture, our farming community, our environment and potentially for cultural well-being, as food related-events are increasingly connected to local food production.

Technology and transport

Adaptation to climate change also brings with it economic opportunities and challenges through the development of new technology. The development of renewable energy production and the digital revolution (accelerated as a result of the ‘stay home’ policy during the Covid-19 pandemic), which can reduce the need to travel, are already contributing to a more sustainable future for Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire, with much scope for further extension.

The transport system has an impact on ecosystems and health. Transport contributes to carbon emissions, air and water pollution, noise pollution and the social and economic effects of congestion or lack of transport opportunities.

Although considered to be a transient effect, it is possible that some behavioural changes as a result of social distancing, eg reduced travel, associated with positive environmental impacts could persist into the medium- or long-term (e.g. increased homeworking) but others may have a more negative impact (e.g. the avoidance of public transport and car sharing). Over the longer term, people will look for more sophisticated online/virtual reality experiences from across the globe, especially as we all adapt to the consequences of climate change and our motivation to reduce individual carbon footprints.

Brexit has also posed a number of environmental challenges, including transferring environmental protection to UK legislation and coordination challenges between the UK and devolved governments.^[9]

Technological change also presents both challenges and opportunities for community resilience.  Increasing use of digital technology could reduce reliance on transport and help to cut carbon emissions.  Greater flexible and home working could mean that villages and small town benefits from a more vibrant day time community than has been the case in recent years.  At the same time technology brings with it the threat of social isolation, cyber –bullying and other risk factors, and could potentially affect house prices as people can increasingly work from home. The potential for uneven adoption of new technologies also raises the possibility of a deepening digital divide.

[1] https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Independent-Assessment-of-UK-Climate-Risk-Advice-to-Govt-for-CCRA3-CCC.pdf

[2] Dr Sara MacBride-Stewart & Dr Alison Parken (2021). Inequality in a Future Wales: Areas for action in work, climate and demographic change. The findings are summarised within a Summary Report and ‘Bite-size’ version with Easy Read and BSL versions available also. For those who are interested in the more detailed analysis you can access the full technical report.

[3] The areas that make up the Local Authority territorial dataset on carbon collated by the UK Government each year are: industry, commercial, public sector, agriculture, domestic, transport and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF).

[4] Government Office for Science (2021). Trend Deck

[5] WWF Cymru (2020). A Welsh Food System Fit For Future Generations A report by the Sustainable Places Research Institute at Cardiff University, commissioned by WWF Cymru. https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/welsh-food-system-fit-future-generations.

[6] WWF Cymru (2020). A Welsh Food System Fit For Future Generations A report by the Sustainable Places Research Institute at Cardiff University, commissioned by WWF Cymru. https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/welsh-food-system-fit-future-generations.

[7] Government Office for Science (2021). Trend Deck

[8] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Briefing on well-being and the impact of Covid-19 and Brexit.

[9] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Briefing on well-being and the impact of Covid-19 and Brexit.