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At this point in time, Census 2021 results are not available. Until such time local authority level results are available we will continue to use Census 2011 data. Furthermore, a Gypsy and Travel Accommodation Assessment is currently being produced and this section will be updated once that assessment has had final approval.
- What is happening now...
- How this compares to the past...
- What we know or predict about the future...
- What people have said...
- Knowledge gaps...
Community cohesion in the area is generally stronger than the Welsh average in Conwy County Borough and slightly lower in Denbighshire. The National Survey for Wales gives the following measures of community cohesion for Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire.[1]
- The percentage of people who agree that they have a ‘feeling of belonging to the local area’ is 83% in Conwy County Borough and 81% in Denbighshire compared to an all-Wales figure of 82%.
- The percentage of people who agree that ‘people in the local area from different backgrounds get on well together’ is 81% in Conwy County Borough and 80% in Denbighshire compared to an all-Wales figure of 79%.
- The percentage of people who agree that ‘people in the local area treat each other with respect and consideration’ is 83% in Conwy County Borough and 75% in Denbighshire compared to an all-Wales figure of 79%.
Public bodies in Wales have a statutory duty to consider how they can positively contribute to a fairer society in their day-to-day activities through paying due regard to eliminating unlawful discrimination, advancing equality of opportunity and fostering good relations.
Exposure to inequality can happen very early in life and it can become a barrier which prevents children from reaching their potential from the outset, and potentially remain a persistent presence which hangs over them as they progress through life.
All figures are pointing to growing diversity in our population. We need to ensure that we recognise the diverse characteristics of our population when delivering our services, to ensure equality of access and opportunity for all. We also need to recognise this diversity when involving people in decision making for our communities and our public services, and ensure representation from all our people.
Ethnicity
- The White British ethnic group made up 95.4% of the population in Conwy C County Borough B and 95.6% in Denbighshire according to the 2011 Census (Wales = 93.2%, England & Wales = 80.5%). In 2001 this group made up 96.8% of the population in Conwy County Borough and 97.2% in Denbighshire.
- The ‘other white’ ethnic group – including Irish, other white Europeans, white Australians, and white people from the Americas – was 2.3% of the population or 2,650 people in 2011 in Conwy County Borough, compared to 2.2% in 2001. In Denbighshire the 2011 figures were 1.8% of the population or 1,650 people, compared to 1.7% in 2001. The 2011 figure for Wales was 2.4% and 5.5% for England & Wales.
- People with mixed ethnicity accounted for 0.8% of the population in both Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire in 2011. This compares to 0.4% in Conwy County Borough in 2001 and 0.5% in Denbighshire. This is about 1,650 people in 2011 (900 in Conwy County Borough, 750 in Denbighshire). It compares to percentages of 1.0% in Wales and 2.2% in England & Wales as a whole.
- All other ethnicities together were 1.5% of the population or about 1,800 people in Conwy County Borough, increased from 0.7% of the population or 750 people in 2001. In Denbighshire the 2011 figures were 1.8% or 1,750 people compared to 0.7% of the population or 650 people in 2001. This compares to 2011 Census results of 3.4% across Wales and 11.8% for England & Wales. The largest ethnic group within this total in Conwy County Borough is Chinese with 0.3% of the population or about 400 people. In Denbighshire the largest group is other Asian (includes Far Eastern ethnicities) with 0.6% of the population (about 300 people).
National identity
- According to the 2011 Census about 97% of people in both Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire identified as having a national identity which was solely attached to UK nations (Welsh / English / Scottish / Northern Irish / British).
- 2.5% of the population of Conwy County Borough and 2.3% of the population of Denbighshire had national identit(ies) other than Welsh / English / Scottish / Northern Irish / British. A further 0.4% in both Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire had mixed UK and other national identities.
- There is no historical data to compare how this has changed over time. However, in 2001 3.3% of the resident population of Conwy County Borough and 2.8% of the population of Denbighshire was born outside the UK, compared to 4.3% in Conwy County Borough in 2011 and 4.1% in Denbighshire (All-Wales figure in 2011 = 5.5%; England & Wales = 13.4%).
Age
- Both Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire have population structures that are considerably older than the national average. They have high proportions of older people in the population, and an obvious gap in the age structure for young people in their late teens and early 20s.
- There is more information about the population of young people in ‘Reducing the outward migration of young people and young people as assets’.
- There is more information about older people in ‘Ageing well’.
Gender
- There are more females than males in the population, due mainly to the fact women live longer than men. The male:female ratio in 2015 was 100:104 (Wales & UK = 100:103)
- Males:females ratio for children in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire is 100:94. This is comparable to the ratios for Wales and the UK. This ratio is not quite equal, as more baby boys are born than baby girls.
- Males:females ratio for the working age group is 100:102, which is slightly higher than for Wales as a whole and the UK (100:101).
- Males:females ratio for the 65+ age group is 100:118 This is comparable to the figure for Wales as a whole, which is 100:119 (UK ratio is 100:121).
Disability
- The number of people with limiting long term illness in Conwy County Borough has grown from 25,750 in 2001 to 27,900 in 2011, and from 21,750 to 22,000 in Denbighshire. Those with limiting long term illness make up 24.2% of the population in Conwy CB and 23.5%% in Denbighshire, compared to a Wales figure of 23.7%.
- The number of people with limiting long term illnesses in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire is predicted to rise by about 3,000 each between 2015 and 2035.
- There is no reliable data on the number of people who live with disability, so this is a proxy measure.
Religion
- Despite falling numbers since 2001, Christianity remained the largest religion with 64.7% of the population identifying themselves as Christian in Conwy County Borough and 64.1% in Denbighshire. Between 2001 and 2011 there has been a decrease in the proportion of people who identify as Christian and an increase in those reporting to have no religion.
- Overall, the number of people with a religion other than Christian almost doubled between 2001 and 2011 from 950 to 1,700 or 1.5% of the population in Conwy County Borough and from 800 to 1,300 or 1.4% of the population in Denbighshire. Within this number, Muslims made up the largest religious group with 0.5% of the population in both areas.
- The religion question is the only voluntary question on the census and about 8% per cent of people did not answer the question in 2011 (similar to non-response rates in 2001).
Sexual orientation
- There is no reliable data about the size of the LGBQT+ population in the UK. Estimates from various sources range from 0.3% to 10%, but they do not allow for non-reporting or misreporting and so the Equality and Human Rights Commission believe that none of these provide an adequate basis for an estimate. The only statistics we have at Wales level are from the Annual Population Survey/Integrated Household Survey and give an estimate of only about 2% of the population being gay / lesbian / bisexual or other.
- This is a sensitive issue. Some people will not be happy to share information about their sexual identity and the inclusion of questions about this can put people off answering surveys or participating in consultations, so it is very difficult to measure.
- The Department of Trade and Industry gives an official estimate that 5-7% of the British population are gay, lesbian or bisexual.
Veterans
A veteran is defined as someone who has served in Her Majesty’s Armed Forces (Regular or Reserve) or Merchant Mariners who have seen duty on legally defined military operations (Ministry of Defence Website, 2019).
There is minimal data available to give an accurate overview of this particular population group within North Wales, this is true not just for North Wales but for Wales as a whole and more broadly the UK. However, the estimated veteran population, all persons aged 16 years and over, for North Wales is 39,110 (Health and Wellbeing Needs of Armed Forces Veterans, Hywel Dda Public Health Team & PHW 2020). The 2021 Census included a question related to veterans, once the 2021 census data is published this should provide a clearer picture of the population.
The Department of Health (2008) has predicted that overall the health and wellbeing needs of veterans is broadly similar to that of the civilian population. However, as a result of their occupation differences occur as a result of occupational injuries and the psychological impact of deployment.
A full assessment of the needs of Veterans is contained within the Health and Wellbeing Needs of Armed Forces Veterans published by Hywel Dda and Public Health Wales 2020. For more information, please access the North Wales Population Needs Assessment.
Vulnerable migrants (asylum seekers and refugees)
While there is no specific data for the inequalities facing vulnerable migrants (asylum seekers and refugees) in our areas, research shows that they are at a higher risk of factors that result in poorer personal well-being (mental health, poverty, isolation, poor housing, stress and anxiety associated with their pre-migration experiences), but that around 10 years after arrival, their health and well-being starts to improve.[2]
Home Office statistics indicate that there are approximately 2,300 asylum seekers in Wales. The Welsh Refugee Council estimates that there are approximately 10,000 refugees in Wales. Refugees and asylum seekers represent around 0.5% of the population in Wales.
From 2017 to 2021, 241 asylum seekers have been resettled across the North Wales local authorities. In North Wales, Wrexham and Conwy both accommodate dispersal centres. All local authorities in North Wales took part in the Home Office Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme, with each authority making a commitment to support a set number of families or individuals. Although that scheme has ended, some local authorities have also signed up to the replacement UK Resettlement Scheme (UKRS). All local authorities in North Wales have also committed to supporting the Home Office Afghan Relocation and Assistance Policy (ARAP) Scheme. There are other schemes that are supported such as the Syrian Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme.
Wrexham has been a dispersal area for asylum seekers for approximately 20 years. Until recently, this was only one of four dispersal areas, but more recently, new areas have joined. In North Wales, Conwy is now also an asylum dispersal area.
The Deeds Not Words report recently spoke to 830 employees from housing organisations. The report states that most organisations said they didn’t work in dispersal areas, but in cases where organisations did (two thirds) some provided an insight into their current practice. A quarter of organisations in dispersal areas did not have links with refugee organisations. Several referred to Syrian Resettlement Scheme (Vulnerable Persons Resettlement Scheme) and others provided great examples of providing housing through partnerships with one organisation leasing housing to a refugee organisation.[3]
Due to the small numbers, the published statistics for unaccompanied asylum seeking children is limited for North Wales.
Asylum seekers in dispersed accommodation are directly supported by services largely commissioned by the Home Office and Welsh Government, such as Clearsprings Ready Homes, Migrant Help and Welsh Refugee Council. However, a wide range of partners provide a variety of additional support to asylum seekers and refugees, including the health board, other third sector organisations, various council departments and other public services.
A key issue flagged for asylum seekers and refugees is the need for improved mental health support. It is widely recognised that refugees and asylum seekers and some migrants have significant unmet mental health needs. Engagement work with those with lived experience will be further explored when the regional Area Plan is developed in 2023. For more information, please access the North Wales Population Needs Assessment.
Gypsy, Roma and Traveller communities
Gypsies, Roma and Travellers are often referred to as “Roma” in Europe and in Britain this is shortened to “GRT”. Gypsy and Travellers are people who follow the ‘nomadic’ lifestyle, which involves regularly travelling to different places and not staying or living at a permanent location (which is likely to be the oldest form of human society).
We think of Roma as those who have migrated to the UK from Eastern and Central European countries from 1990 onwards.
The Office for National Statistics added an option to select Gypsy and Travellers as an ethnic group in the 2011 Census, and added Roma as an option to the 2021 census. Of those who completed the 2011 Census, over 58,000 (0.1% of the usual resident population of England and Wales) identified as Gypsy and Travellers. The 2021 census results are yet to be published.
Gypsy Roma and (some) Travellers belong to a minority ethnic group, and are protected against discrimination under the Equality Act 2010 in England, Wales and Scotland, and under the Race Relations (NI) Order 1997 in Northern Ireland.
There are many reasons why these communities stay in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire, including:
- A rest period from travelling
- To access medical attention, especially in the instance of pregnancy or long term illness or disease
- To visit friends or family in the area
- Attend a gathering, for example a wedding or a funeral
- For work commitments.
Conwy and Denbighshire’s Gypsy and Traveller Assessment (GTAA) 2021, which considers the short and longer term accommodation needs over the lifetime of the Replacement Local Development Plan (RLDP) up to 2033, has been submitted to Welsh Government for approval. The new GTAA 2021 is a result of following Welsh Government’s GTAA methodology guidance and has sought to understand the accommodation needs of the Gypsy and Traveller population in both counties, through a combination of desk-based research and stakeholder engagement with stakeholders and the gypsy and traveller community. Once formally published, the findings will be incorporated into our analyses here.
Children and young people who are, or have been, looked after
The North Wales Population Needs Assessment includes data and analysis about children needing care and support. The numbers vary across North Wales and over time with no clear trend. The greatest proportion of the children needing care fall into the age range of 5-15. The primary issues affecting each age group may vary. For example, for 0-5 year olds the issues may be neglect, whereas for teenagers, behaviour may be the symptom of underlying issues at home.
The category of need for children receiving care and support for North Wales is:
- Just over half are due to abuse or neglect (56.5%).
- The next most frequent category is the child’s disability or illness (17.2%), family dysfunction (11.1%) or family in acute stress (8.3%).
- Families may be referred for more than one reason, so this list reflects the main reason recorded.
The proportion of children with up-to-date immunisations and dental checks is lower for North Wales than the national average. The percentage age 10+ with mental health problems is higher than the national average, 19% compared to 14%. Up-to-date child health surveillance checks are just above the Welsh average. The proportion of children with ASD is higher in North Wales at 16%, compared to 12% for Wales.
Data was also collected for the percentage of children aged 10+ with substance misuse problems. This was suppressed as part of the data release for Wrexham due to the small numbers involved being disclosive. The average for Wales was 7%. Proportions ranged from 12% in Flintshire to 3% in Conwy.
The number of children looked after in North Wales has increased by 350 during 2017 to 2021. North Wales has a lower number of children looked after per 100,000 population than the rest of Wales, however there are significant variations across the region, from 795 in Flintshire to 1,304 in Wrexham. Conwy County Borough’s rate stood at 1,015 and Denbighshire’s at 923 in 2021.[4]
There were around 945 children in foster care in North Wales in 2020. The numbers have increased year on year since 2015. This increase is also the national trend, with numbers increasing across Wales as a whole. The numbers in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire have fluctuated and no trend can be observed.
For more information, view the full North Wales Population Needs Assessment here.
A wide educational attainment gap exists between looked after pupils and all pupils in Wales, and this attainment gap increases over time. At 31 March 2019, the proportion of Key Stage 2 pupils who were looked after achieving the expected outcome was 18% points less compared to all pupils, which increased to a 27% gap in Key Stage 3, and 37 percentage points in Key Stage 4.[5]
Children who are looked after are also more likely to report emotional well-being issues. Wales-specific data on mental health issues in young people who are, or have been, looked after are lacking. However, analysis of British children aged 5–17 shows that looked after children are over five times more likely to have a diagnosed mental disorder than non-disadvantaged children. Rates of behavioural disorders among young people who are looked after children are particularly high, at nearly two-fifths (39%).[6]
The reasons that young people end up being looked after are complex: the relationship between their experiences before and during care, and subsequent well-being outcomes, is also complex. The literature suggests that poorer mental health and well-being outcomes for young people who are, or have been, looked after can be driven by past experience of abuse; neglect and difficult familial relationships; as well as the potential trauma of the process of being taken into care and certain in-care experiences such as frequent or short-notice moves between different placements. [7]
People who have need for care or support, and people who care for them
Please see our Supporting carers topic.
Poverty and inequality
“…socio-economic deprivation is highly intersectional. Deprivation interacts with protected characteristics, and certain communities of interest and communities of place may also experience worse outcomes in many areas. This intersectionality between deprivation and other characteristics can be thought of as a web, where different areas connect, compounding and exacerbating each other. This makes it no surprise that poverty can quickly become cyclical, or thought of as a trap that is difficult to escape. Unfortunately, disentangling this web is a complex, multifaceted issue that demands work from a wide range of stakeholders.” [8]
Welsh Government research indicates that certain groups are more likely to experience poverty:[9]
- Lone parents had the highest rate of transient poverty and persistent poverty
- Single pensioners also had high levels of persistent poverty
- Families with two adults were less likely to experience poverty than their single-adult equivalents.
- Families with children were more likely to have experienced poverty than the equivalent family type (single or couple) without children.
- Disabled people are more likely than non-disabled people to be workless and therefore more likely to experience poverty.
- Women are more likely than men to live in single-parent households, to have low incomes, and to have only part-time work and are therefore more likely to experience poverty.
- Pakistani and Bangladeshi women are also more likely, than other women, to be workless and therefore more likely to experience poverty.
On the basis of national evidence, the following protected characteristics are more likely to live in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs in Wales (ranks 1 – 191):[10]
- Females from all age groups are more likely to live in more deprived areas than males.
- Younger people are more likely than older people to live in the 10% most deprived LSOAs
- Single people are more than twice as likely to live in the 10% most deprived LSOAS compared with those who are married or in a civil partnership. Nearly half of all people living in the most deprived 10% of LSOAs are single.
- Disabled people
- People who describe their sexual identity as lesbian, gay, bi-sexual or anything other than heterosexual/straight (LGBO+ ) are slightly more likely than heterosexuals to live in the 10% most deprived LSOAs
- People with a Muslim faith
- People with a Black Asian Minority Ethnic background
In terms of reported well-being, using UK-wide analyses, we can say that disabled people report lower average well-being than non-disabled people. Some ethnic groups, particularly people from Gypsy, Roma and Traveller communities and mixed or multiple ethic, or Arab backgrounds, score below average. Those who observe a religion tended to report higher life satisfaction, feelings of being happier and feeling that life was worthwhile (although this wasn’t the case for anxiety). There were subtle but not significant differences between men and women, but married people or those in civil partnerships tended to experience higher than average well-being; so too heterosexual respondents (when compared to those with other sexual identities) – although anxiety higher anxiety scores were reported for some sexual identities.[11] When it comes to age, What Works Well-being highlights increased anxiety in early adulthood (20-24 age group); low levels of life satisfaction in mid-life (particularly for the 45-55 age group); and a lack of purpose in later years experienced by those aged 85+.[12] The Wales Centre for Public Policy has reviewed a range of data and research to conclude that disabled people or those with long-term health conditions are less likely to feel safe or feel that they belong to their local community, and are more likely to have experience domestic abuse. Ethnic minority backgrounds and LGBTQ+ people are also more likely to feel safe and have a greater fear of crime that majority ethnic or heterosexual people.[13]
For more information, please read our Equality summary.
Welsh language
- The 2011 Census estimates that there are 52,850 people aged 3 or over who are able to speak Welsh in Conwy County Borough and Denbighshire.
- This is 26.1% of the population. (Conwy C County Borough B = 30,600 people or 27.4%. Denbighshire = 22,250 or 24.6%).
- For Wales as a whole only 19% of the population are able to speak Welsh.
- Only slightly more than half of the population of the area were born in Wales (56% overall – 54% in Conwy County Borough and 58% in Denbighshire), which in part accounts for the lower proportion of the population who are able to speak Welsh when compared to the neighbouring districts to the West (Gwynedd contains 65% Welsh speakers).
- The section of this assessment called ‘Promoting the Welsh language’ looks at this in more detail.
[1] National Survey for Wales 2014-15, Welsh Government
[2] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Well-being and equalities briefing.
[3] Tai Pawb (2021. Deeds Not Words: A pledge to end racial Inequality in housing.
[4] Source: Children Looked after Census. StatsWales, Welsh Government
[5] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Well-being and equalities briefing.
[6] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Well-being and equalities briefing.
[7] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Well-being and equalities briefing.
[8] Government Social Research (2021). Implementing the Socio-economic Duty: A review of evidence on socio-economic disadvantage and inequalities of outcome
[9] Welsh Government, 2014 The dynamics of low income (gov.wales)
[10] Welsh Government, 2021. Analysis of protected characteristics by area deprivation: 2017 to 2019 | GOV.WALES
[11] ONS, 2017. Personal well-being and protected characteristics – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
[12] Wellbeing and age: the triple dip – What Works Wellbeing
[13] Wales Centre for Public Policy (2021). Well-being and equalities briefing.
A comparison will be available once 2021 Census results are published.
Wales’ population currently stands at 3.17 million people and, based on current projections, this is expected to increase, but is dependent on continued fertility and mortality rates as well as continued net in-migration, which may or may not occur.[1]
Future population composition in Wales, like many economically developed countries, has an ageing population: people are living longer and having fewer children. Trends of decreasing mortality and fertility look set to continue, resulting in an increasing proportion of older people in the Welsh population. Compared to the UK as a whole, Wales is projected to continue having a higher share of older people in its population, and its working age population is set to gradually decrease in the coming decades.[2]
Migration is likely to continue to be a key driver of population change in Wales.
[1] Welsh Government (2021). Future Trends Report Wales. future-trends-report-wales-2021-narrative-summary.pdf (gov.wales)
[2] Welsh Government (2021). Future Trends Report Wales. future-trends-report-wales-2021-narrative-summary.pdf (gov.wales)
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Data gaps
- There is no data available about people who are transgender at either unitary authority or national level.
- There is no comprehensive source of data about disability. The 2011 Census provides information on limiting long term illness and unpaid carers at unitary authority level. There is a register of physical and / or sensory impaired people and people with learning disabilities who use social services, but this only captures information about those people who use the Council’s services.
- The only source of data about religious affiliation at unitary authority level is the 2011 Census.
- The most reliable data for ethnicity figures for all the population at unitary authority level is the 2011 Census. More up-to-date figures are available at an all-Wales level. The School Census provides more recent ethnicity data for school pupils only.
- National identity figures are only available for unitary authorities from the 2011 Census.
- The 2011 Census has detailed data on the Welsh language. It provides data about Welsh language skills, and a breakdown of Welsh speakers by age, nationality and geographically. The School Census also provides data about pupils in who attend Welsh medium schools and about pupils in all schools who speak Welsh.
- The Annual Population Survey produces figures for unitary authorities, but because of the limited sample size, they are not considered a robust source of data at this level. They are therefore not recommended for use at UA level and are not included in the above table. Wales figures have been included as they are considered robust.